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Pandemic Flu Projection Says More Than Half Million Could Die in U.S.

Chart shows expected deaths, hospitalization, cases by state

June 24, 2005 - Trust for America's Health (TFAH) today released state-by-state projections that found over half a million Americans could die and over 2.3 million could be hospitalized if a moderately severe strain of a pandemic flu virus hits the U.S. Senior citizens and the elderly would be at high risk. Based on the model estimates, 66.9 million Americans are at risk of contracting the disease.

The study also found that the U.S. currently only has stockpiled 2.3 million courses and has placed orders for an additional three million courses of antiviral pharmaceuticals (produced as Tamiflu by Roche Pharmaceuticals), which would likely be available in 2006. This would be enough to cover 5.3 million Americans, leaving over 60 million who could be infected and would not be able to receive medication before an effective vaccine to combat the flu strain is identified and produced.

TFAH's numerical projections are included in a new report, "A Killer Flu? 'Inevitable' Epidemic Could Kill Millions."

"This is not a drill. This is not a planning exercise. This is for real," said Shelley A. Hearne, DrPH, executive director of TFAH. "Americans are being placed needlessly at risk. The U.S. must take fast and furious action to prepare for a possible pandemic outbreak here at home."

"The Government Reform Committee has held several hearings over the last few years to let people know that the flu is not something to take lightly," said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), Chairman of the House Government Reform Committee. "TFAH's report clearly demonstrates that the emergence of a pandemic flu could exact a tremendous toll on U.S. health and economic stability. In order to identify problem areas and prioritize planning and response efforts, the Committee will hold a hearing next week on the threats posed by a potential flu pandemic."

Dr. Hearne will be testifying Thursday, June 30, before the House Government Reform Committee on U.S. preparedness for pandemic and annual flu. Some of the TFAH report's other findings include:

-- While estimates find that over two million Americans may need to be hospitalized during a pandemic outbreak, the U.S. currently only has approximately 965,256 staffed hospital beds.

-- The U.S. has not adequately planned for the disruption a flu pandemic could cause to the economy, daily life, food and supply distributions, or homeland security.

-- The U.S. lags in pandemic preparations compared to Great Britain and Canada based on an examination of leadership, vaccine development, vaccine and antiviral planning, health care system surge capacity planning, coordination between public and private sectors, and emergency communications planning.

TFAH provides a series of detailed recommendations to help ensure the U.S. is better prepared regardless of whether a pandemic occurs as soon as this year or in several years. With a crisis looming, the U.S. plan for the pandemic should be finalized and the President should designate an official with authority to coordinate the U.S. response across federal agencies. Other top-level recommendations include taking:

-- Immediate steps of outbreak tracking, stockpiling medical supplies, and developing emergency communications plans;

-- Intermediate steps of stockpiling additional antivirals and developing surge capacity plans for hospitals and health care providers; and

-- Longer range steps to increase vaccine production and the development of new technologies for vaccines.

As the highest populated state, California could be impacted the hardest, with over 60,875 deaths, 273,090 hospitalized, and over eight million infected people. With 5.3 million courses of antivirals evenly distributed among states, California could face a shortfall of over 7.4 million people infected who could not receive the medication. As the least populated state, Alaska could have 866 deaths, 4,558 hospitalized, 152,328 cases, and an antiviral shortfall of 140,263.

TFAH's analysis, based on the estimates of the severity of the current strain circulating in Asia, follows warnings issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) about the severity of the pandemic, "killer flu" threat. The projections are based on a modeling program developed by the CDC using WHO estimates that approximately 25 percent of countries' populations could become infected and descriptions of the severity of the strain as likely to be in the range between the levels of the extremely severe 1918 influenza pandemic and the relatively mild 1968 pandemic. Some scientists believe the current avian flu strain is on the more severe side of the possible range. The more mild and more severe estimates are also included in the appendix of TFAH's report. TFAH's calculations and related flu materials are available online at: http://www.healthyamericans.org

Trust for America's Health is a non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to saving lives by protecting the health of every community and working to make disease prevention a national priority.

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