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Senior Citizen Population Will Grow Faster Than All Others in All States by 2030

Census Bureau projects population growth to 2030 by state

April 21, 2005 – The U.S. Census Bureau released projections on the U.S. population by state for the year 2030 and the headlines were about which states are to grow the fastest. The real story, however, is the picture of the growth in senior citizens. Beginning in 2011, the population 65 and older will grow faster than the total population in every single state.

Highlights of the senior population boom in the report:

    >  In 2000, each of the nation’s 50 states had more people under 18 than 65 and older. In fact, in about half of the states, the ratio was more than two to one. In 2030, 10 states are projected to have more people 65 and older than under 18: Florida, Delaware, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

    >  In six states, more than one in every four residents would be age 65 and older in 2030: Florida, Wyoming, Maine, New Mexico, Montana and North Dakota.

    >  As the oldest baby boomers become senior citizens in 2011, the population 65 and older is projected to grow faster than the total population in every state. In fact, 26 states are projected to double their 65- and-older population between 2000 and 2030.

Three states — Florida, California and Texas — would account for nearly one-half (46 percent) of total U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2030, according to the projections released today. Consequently, Florida, now the fourth most populous state, would edge past New York into third place in total population by 2011; California and Texas would continue to rank first and second, respectively, in 2030. (See table.)

Interestingly, these three states will have the largest senior citizen populations, too, by 2025. California will have 6,424,000 in 2025, while Texas will have 5,453,000 and Florida 4,364,000. (Click here to our chart of senior populations ranked by state.)

These three states would each gain more than 12 million people between 2000 and 2030. Arizona, projected to add 5.6 million people, and North Carolina, with 4.2 million, would round out the top five numerical gainers. As a result, Arizona and North Carolina would move into the top 10 in total population by 2030 — Arizona rising from 20th place in 2000 to 10th place in 2030 and North Carolina from 11th place to seventh place. Michigan and New Jersey are projected to drop out of the top 10. (See table.)

The projections indicate that the top five fastest-growing states between 2000 and 2030 would be Nevada (114 percent), Arizona (109 percent), Florida (80 percent), Texas (60 percent) and Utah (56 percent).

Most (88 percent) of the nation’s population growth between 2000 and 2030 would occur in the South and West, which would be home to the 10 fastest-growing states over the period. The share of the population living in the South and West would increase from 58 percent in 2000 to 65 percent in 2030, while the share in the Northeast and Midwest would decline from 42 percent to 35 percent.

These projections were produced by the Population Division in correspondence with the U.S. interim projections released in March 2004. They were developed for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia by age and sex for the years 2000 to 2030, based on Census 2000 results. These projections differ from forecasts in that they represent the results of the mathematical projection model given that current state-specific trends in fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration continue. The projections to 2004 have been superseded by population estimates at <http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php>.

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