Senior Citizens Slightly Favor McCain in May Polling
Despite Obama Bounce from April
Older Boomers most likely to support McCain after
favoring Obama in April; Pew Research finds McCain's Negatives Mostly
Political, Obama's More Personal
By Tucker Sutherland, editor, SenorJournal.com
June
10, 2008 In the closing days of the Democratic primary, the Pew
Research Center for the People and the Press released poll numbers
showing voter preferences in an election between Barack Obama and John
McCain as measured in April and May. Senior citizens age 65 and older
were more likely to favor McCain. In May, however, they were not the
age group most committed to the Republican it was the 50-64 age group
of older boomers, which had favored Obama just one month earlier.
This report was issued just prior to the last
elections in the Democratic primary that clinched the nomination for
Obama, so much of it focused on that race. The Obama-McCain comparisons,
however, provide a good bench mark to follow the trend of voter
preference among senior citizens as the campaigns move toward the
November election.
The Pew researchers say at the end of May the
presumptive nominees were about even in voter preference. Although,
Obama led in this matchup by modest margins in three Pew surveys since
late February.
Following are some of the highlights of the Pew
analysis of this polling reporf.
April
May
Age
Obama
McCain
Obama
McCain
Obama Ch.
18-29
56
42
60
37
4
30-49
54
42
50
43
-4
50-64
47
46
41
48
-6
65+
42
52
43
46
1
Men
46
48
47
46
1
Women
53
42
47
42
-6
All
40
44
47
44
-3
● The tightening general election matchup between
Obama and McCain shows some sullying of Obama's personal image over the
past three months, despite his primary victories. Over this period,
unfavorable views of McCain have risen as well.
● Obama's favorable rating among voters has
slipped eight points since late February, from 59% to 51% in the current
survey.
● When those who express an unfavorable opinion
are asked what they do not like about Obama, most (54%) cite his
political beliefs. But nearly a third (32%) either mention the kind of
person Obama is, or say their unfavorable views are influenced both by
the kind of person he is and his political beliefs.
● White working class voters are among the most
likely to mention the kind of person Obama is as a reason for their
unfavorable opinion of him.
● Obama's slipping image is in some measure a
negative reaction from frustrated Clinton supporters. Currently, just
46% of those who support Clinton for the nomination say the party will
unite behind Obama if he is the nominee. In March, 58% of Clinton
supporters said the party would rally behind Obama if he is the nominee.
●
Recent declines in Obama's image have been pronounced among whites --
especially white women. Currently, just 43% of white women express a
positive opinion of Obama, down from 56% in late February.
● Favorable opinions of Obama among independent
voters, who have provided him strong support in several of his primary
election victories, also have declined over the course of the campaign.
Obama's favorable ratings among this pivotal group have fallen from 62%
in late February to just 49% in the current poll.
● McCain's personal image among voters also has
become more negative since February. Currently, 48% express a favorable
view of the Arizona senator while nearly as many (45%) have a negative
opinion. In late February, the balance of opinion about McCain was more
positive (50% favorable vs. 39% unfavorable).
● Unlike Obama, however, an overwhelming majority
of those who express unfavorable views of McCain cite his political
beliefs as the reason they do not like him, rather the kind of person he
is. Fully 73% of those with a negative opinion of McCain cite his
political beliefs while just 18% cite personal factors.
●
Most of McCain's image decline is reflective of increasingly partisan
opinions of the Arizona Republican. At the beginning of the year,
Democrats were evenly split in their opinions of McCain, but now they
are overwhelmingly negative (72% unfavorable).
● Republican views of McCain have improved
markedly since the beginning of primary season.
● Like Obama, McCain also is less popular among
independents than he was earlier in the year, though much of the decline
in favorable views of McCain occurred between January and February.
● Currently, Obama and McCain run even among
independents (44% to 44%); in April, Obama enjoyed a 52% to 41%
advantage among these pivotal voters. Similarly, Obama now trails McCain
among white women (by 49% to 41%), who were more evenly divided in
previous surveys.
● Obama's diminished popularity and support among
white women may in part be an indication of a growing backlash against
him among Clinton's women supporters. The survey finds that as many 39%
of Clinton's female supporters believe that her gender has hurt her
candidacy. In turn, favorable opinions of Obama have tumbled among women
who support Clinton -- from 58% in March to 43% currently. By contrast,
there has been a slight increase in positive views of Obama over this
period among men who support Clinton (from 42% in March to 47%
currently).
Advantages and Liabilities
Beyond
the changing personal evaluations of the likely nominees, the survey of
1,505 adults, conducted May 21-25, finds that each has clear advantages,
and distinct liabilities, as the general election campaign approaches.
● For McCain, a positive sign is that a plurality
of independents (47%) says that, if elected, he will take the country in
a new direction, while 40% say he will continue President Bush's
policies. However, somewhat fewer independents expect McCain to depart
from Bush's policies than did so in March (52%).
● Voters' perceptions about whether McCain
represents a break from Bush's policies might change further in coming
months as his positions on issues become clearer. Currently, just 34% of
voters say they know a lot about where McCain stands on major issues;
slightly more (39%) say they know a lot about the positions of Obama.
This disparity is larger among the supporters of each candidate.
● A narrow majority of Obama backers (52%) say
they know a lot about his positions on issues, while just 44% of
McCain's supporters say they know a great deal about their candidate's
positions.
● For Obama, one of the most striking positives in
the survey is the extent to which his supporters in the general election
test say they are voting for him rather than against McCain. Fully
three-quarters of Obama supporters view their vote as being for Obama,
while just 22% characterize their vote as anti-McCain. Four years ago,
John Kerry's support was more anti-Bush (50%) than affirmative support
for Kerry (43%). Of McCain supporters, 64% say their vote is for him,
while 32% say it is a vote against Obama.
● Obama has a clear advantage over McCain on
several major issues. In particular, voters say the Illinois Democrat
could do better in improving economic conditions, dealing with the
nation's energy problems, and improving the healthcare system. Obama
also is favored by 48% to 34% over McCain for reflecting voters' views
on social issues such as abortion and gay rights.
●
McCain tested somewhat better than Obama on dealing with immigration and
taxes. However, nearly as many voters say Obama could do better in
making wise decisions about what to do in Iraq as McCain (43% Obama vs.
46% McCain). Last month, the likely Republican nominee held a wide 50%
to 38% margin on dealing with Iraq.
● However, more voters continue to say that McCain
is about right in his approach to foreign policy and national security
issues than say that about Obama (51% vs. 43%). The view that Obama is
not tough enough on foreign policy has not receded since earlier in the
year. More than four-in-ten (43%) say that Obama is not tough enough on
foreign policy, which is identical to February.
● The survey finds that just 18% say they are
satisfied with state of the nation -- the lowest percentage in two
decades of People-Press polls. Reflecting the widespread unhappiness
with the national economy, an overwhelming proportion of respondents say
the economy (88%) and jobs (78%) will be very important in their vote.
In addition, roughly three-quarters each name healthcare, education,
energy and Social Security as very important.
● Concerns about energy have increased
dramatically since the last presidential campaign. In October 2004, 54%
said energy would be a very important issue in their vote; currently,
77% say energy is very important, which is greater than the percentages
citing Iraq (72%) or terrorism (68%).
June
10, 2008 In the closing days of the Democratic primary, the Pew
Research Center for the People and the Press released poll numbers
showing voter preferences in an election between Barack Obama and John
McCain as measured in April and May. Senior citizens age 65 and older
were more likely to favor McCain. In May, however, they were not the
age group most committed to the Republican it was the 50-64 age group
of older boomers, which had favored Obama just one month earlier. 
●
Recent declines in Obama's image have been pronounced among whites --
especially white women. Currently, just 43% of white women express a
positive opinion of Obama, down from 56% in late February.
●
Most of McCain's image decline is reflective of increasingly partisan
opinions of the Arizona Republican. At the beginning of the year,
Democrats were evenly split in their opinions of McCain, but now they
are overwhelmingly negative (72% unfavorable). 
Beyond
the changing personal evaluations of the likely nominees, the survey of
1,505 adults, conducted May 21-25, finds that each has clear advantages,
and distinct liabilities, as the general election campaign approaches.
●
McCain tested somewhat better than Obama on dealing with immigration and
taxes. However, nearly as many voters say Obama could do better in
making wise decisions about what to do in Iraq as McCain (43% Obama vs.
46% McCain). Last month, the likely Republican nominee held a wide 50%
to 38% margin on dealing with Iraq.