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Health & Medicine for Senior Citizens

Cancer Death Rate Continues Decline, Not Counting Women Over Age 80: Cancer 2014

There will be 1,665,540 new cancer cases and 585,720 cancer deaths in the US in 2014 – see stats by cancer type and age for men, women; video on cancer decrease

See video below on decrease in cancer

Jan. 10, 2014 - For the average American, your chance of dying from cancer has dropped by 20 percent over the last two decades and this steady decline will continue into 2014, according to the annual report from the American Cancer Society. But, for senior citizens over age 70 the odds of invasive cancer are still high. For men the chance is about 37 percent and for women about 27 percent. And, if you are male, the chance of invasive cancer is higher than for women, especially after becoming a senior citizen at age 65. But, if you happen to be a senior white woman 80 years old or older the bad news is that your chance of dying from cancer is not improving.

 

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On the positive side, however, middle-aged black men have seen their chance of dying from cancer decline by about 50 percent, but they still have the highest cancer incidence and death rates among all ethnicities in the U.S. - about double those of Asian Americans, who have the lowest rates.

Women have a lower probability rate of invasive cancer – 38% compared to 44% for men - because of the earlier median age at diagnosis for breast cancer (61 years) compared with prostate (66 years) and other major cancers, women have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer than men before age 65 years. (See table below on risk by age)

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths expected in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival based on incidence data from the National Cancer Institute and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics. The data are disseminated in two reports, Cancer Statistics, published in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, and its companion article, Cancer Facts & Figures.

This year’s report estimates there will be 1,665,540 new cancer cases and 585,720 cancer deaths in the United States in 2014. Among men, prostate, lung, and colon cancer will account for about half of all newly diagnosed cancers, with prostate cancer alone accounting for about one in four cases. Among women, the three most common cancers in 2014 will be breast, lung, and colon, which together will account for half of all cases. Breast cancer alone is expected to account for 29% of all new cancers among women.

The estimated 585,720 deaths from cancer in 2014 correspond to about 1,600 deaths per day. Lung, colon, prostate, and breast cancers continue to be the most common causes of cancer death, accounting for almost half of the total cancer deaths among men and women. Just over one in four cancer deaths is due to lung cancer.

During the most recent five years for which there are data (2006-2010), cancer incidence rates declined slightly in men (by 0.6% per year) and were stable in women, while cancer death rates decreased by 1.8% per year in men and by 1.4% per year in women.

The combined cancer death rate has been continuously declining for two decades, from a peak of 215.1 per 100,000 in 1991 to 171.8 per 100,000 in 2010. This 20 percent decline translates to the avoidance of approximately 1,340,400 cancer deaths (952,700 among men and 387,700 among women) during this time period.

The magnitude of the decline in cancer death rates from 1991 to 2010 varies substantially by age, race, and sex, ranging from no decline among white women aged 80 years and older to a 55% decline among black men aged 40 years to 49 years. Notably, black men experienced the largest drop within every 10-year age group.

“The progress we are seeing is good, even remarkable, but we can and must do even better,” said John R. Seffrin, PhD, chief executive officer of the American Cancer Society. “The halving of the risk of cancer death among middle aged black men in just two decades is extraordinary, but it is immediately tempered by the knowledge that death rates are still higher among black men than white men for nearly every major cancer and for all cancers combined.”

Article: Siegel R, Jemal A, Cancer Statistics 2014: CA Cancer Journal for Clinicians. doi: 10.3322/caac.21208. Published online ahead of print at cacancerjournal.com

>> Cancer statistics report from the American Cancer Society

Lifetime Probability of Developing Cancer

The lifetime probability of being diagnosed with an invasive cancer is higher for men (44%) than for women (38%) (Table 4). However, because of the earlier median age at diagnosis for breast cancer (61 years) compared with prostate (66 years) and other major cancers, women have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer than men before age 65 years. These estimates are based on the average experience of the general population and may over- or underestimate individual risk because of differences in exposure (eg, smoking history), medical history, and/or genetic susceptibility.

Probability (%) of Developing Invasive Cancers Within Selected Age Intervals by Sex,

United States, 2008 to 2010

    Birth To 49 50 To 59 60 To 69 70 and Older Birth to Death
All sitesb

Male

3.5 (1 in 29)

6.8 (1 in 15)

15.4 (1 in 6)

36.9 (1 in 3)

43.9 (1 in 2)

 

Female

5.4 (1 in 19)

6.0 (1 in 17)

10.1 (1 in 10)

26.7 (1 in 4)

38.0 (1 in 3)

Kidney & renal pelvis

Male

0.2 (1 in 480)

0.3 (1 in 289)

0.6 (1 in 154)

1.3 (1 in 75)

2.1 (1 in 49)

 

Female

0.1 (1 in 753)

0.2 (1 in 586)

0.3 (1 in 317)

0.7 (1 in 134)

1.2 (1 in 83)

Breast

Female

1.9 (1 in 53)

2.3 (1 in 43)

3.5 (1 in 29)

6.7 (1 in 15)

12.3 (1 in 8)

Colorectum

Male

0.3 (1 in 305)

0.7 (1 in 144)

1.3 (1 in 76)

4.0 (1 in 25)

5.0 (1 in 20)

 

Female

0.3 (1 in 334)

0.5 (1 in 189)

0.9 (1 in 109)

3.7 (1 in 27)

4.6 (1 in 22)

Leukemia

Male

0.2 (1 in 421)

0.2 (1 in 614)

0.4 (1 in 279)

1.3 (1 in 76)

1.7 (1 in 60)

 

Female

0.2 (1 in 526)

0.1 (1 in 979)

0.2 (1 in 475)

0.8 (1 in 120)

1.2 (1 in 86)

Lung & bronchus

Male

0.2 (1 in 548)

0.7 (1 in 134)

2.1 (1 in 47)

6.7 (1 in 15)

7.6 (1 in 13)

 

Female

0.2 (1 in 522)

0.6 (1 in 171)

1.6 (1 in 62)

4.9 (1 in 20)

6.3 (1 in 16)

Melanoma of the skinc

Male

0.4 (1 in 284)

0.4 (1 in 134)

0.8 (1 in 129)

2.1 (1 in 48)

2.9 (1 in 34)

 

Female

0.5 (1 in 206)

0.3 (1 in 313)

0.4 (1 in 243)

0.9 (1 in 113)

1.9 (1 in 53)

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma

Male

0.3 (1 in 357)

0.3 (1 in 338)

0.6 (1 in 171)

1.8 (1 in 56)

2.4 (1 in 42)

 

Female

0.2 (1 in 537)

0.2 (1 in 475)

0.4 (1 in 233)

1.4 (1 in 71)

1.9 (1 in 52)

Prostate

Male

0.3 (1 in 298)

2.3 (1 in 43)

6.4 (1 in 16)

11.2 (1 in 9)

15.3 (1 in 7)

Uterine cervix

Female

0.3 (1 in 348)

0.1 (1 in 812)

0.1 (1 in 824)

0.2 (1 in 619)

0.7 (1 in 154)

Uterine corpus

Female

0.3 (1 in 370)

0.6 (1 in 171)

0.9 (1 in 111)

1.3 (1 in 78)

2.7 (1 in 37)

  1. a
    For people free of cancer at beginning of age interval.
  2. b
    All sites excludes basal cell and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ cancers except urinary bladder.
  3. c
    Probabilities for whites only.

Expected Numbers of New Cancer Cases

Table 1 presents the estimated numbers of new cases of invasive cancer expected among men and women in the United States in 2014. The overall estimate of 1,665,540 new cases is the equivalent of more than 4,500 new cancer diagnoses each day. About 62,570 cases of breast carcinoma in situ and 63,770 cases of melanoma in situ are expected to be newly diagnosed in 2014.

 Estimated New Cancer Cases and Deaths by Sex, United States, 2014

  ESTIMATED NEW CASES ESTIMATED DEATHS
  BOTH SEXES MALE FEMALE BOTH SEXES MALE FEMALE
 
All sites 1,665,540 855,220 810,320 585,720 310,010 275,710
Oral cavity & pharynx 42,440 30,220 12,220 8,390 5,730 2,660
Tongue 13,590 9,720 3,870 2,150 1,450 700
Mouth 11,920 7,150 4,770 2,070 1,130 940
Pharynx 14,410 11,550 2,860 2,540 1,900 640
Other oral cavity 2,520 1,800 720 1,630 1,250 380
Digestive system

289,610

162,730

126,880

147,260

84,970

62,290

Esophagus

18,170

14,660

3,510

15,450

12,450

3,000

Stomach

22,220

13,730

8,490

10,990

6,720

4,270

Small intestine

9,160

4,880

4,280

1,210

640

570

Colonb

96,830

48,450

48,380

50,310

26,270

24,040

Rectum

40,000

23,380

16,620

 

 

 

Anus, anal canal, & anorectum

7,210

2,660

4,550

950

370

580

Liver & intrahepatic bile duct

33,190

24,600

8,590

23,000

15,870

7,130

Gallbladder & other biliary

10,650

4,960

5,690

3,630

1,610

2,020

Pancreas

46,420

23,530

22,890

39,590

20,170

19,420

Other digestive organs

5,760

1,880

3,880

2,130

870

1,260

Respiratory system

242,550

130,000

112,550

163,660

90,280

73,380

Larynx

12,630

10,000

2,630

3,610

2,870

740

Lung & bronchus

224,210

116,000

108,210

159,260

86,930

72,330

Other respiratory organs

5,710

4,000

1,710

790

480

310

Bones & joints

3,020

1,680

1,340

1,460

830

630

Soft tissue (including heart)

12,020

6,550

5,470

4,740

2,550

2,190

Skin (excluding basal & squamous)

81,220

46,630

34,590

12,980

8,840

4,140

Melanoma-skin

76,100

43,890

32,210

9,710

6,470

3,240

Other nonepithelial skin

5,120

2,740

2,380

3,270

2,370

900

Breast

235,030

2,360

232,670

40,430

430

40,000

Genital system

338,450

243,460

94,990

58,970

30,180

28,790

Uterine cervix

12,360

 

12,360

4,020

 

4,020

Uterine corpus

52,630

 

52,630

8,590

 

8,590

Ovary

21,980

 

21,980

14,270

 

14,270

Vulva

4,850

 

4,850

1,030

 

1,030

Vagina & other genital, female

3,170

 

3,170

880

 

880

Prostate

233,000

233,000

 

29,480

29,480

 

Testis

8,820

8,820

 

380

380

 

Penis & other genital, male

1,640

1,640

 

320

320

 

Urinary system

141,610

97,420

44,190

30,350

20,610

9,740

Urinary bladder

74,690

56,390

18,300

15,580

11,170

4,410

Kidney & renal pelvis

63,920

39,140

24,780

13,860

8,900

4,960

Ureter & other urinary organs

3,000

1,890

1,110

910

540

370

Eye & orbit

2,730

1,440

1,290

310

130

180

Brain & other nervous system

23,380

12,820

10,560

14,320

8,090

6,230

Endocrine system

65,630

16,600

49,030

2,820

1,300

1,520

Thyroid

62,980

15,190

47,790

1,890

830

1,060

Other endocrine

2,650

1,410

1,240

930

470

460

Lymphoma

79,990

43,340

36,650

20,170

11,140

9,030

Hodgkin lymphoma

9,190

5,070

4,120

1,180

670

510

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma

70,800

38,270

32,530

18,990

10,470

8,520

Myeloma

24,050

13,500

10,550

11,090

6,110

4,980

Leukemia

52,380

30,100

22,280

24,090

14,040

10,050

Acute lymphocytic leukemia

6,020

3,140

2,880

1,440

810

630

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia

15,720

9,100

6,620

4,600

2,800

1,800

Acute myeloid leukemia

18,860

11,530

7,330

10,460

6,010

4,450

Chronic myeloid leukemia

5,980

3,130

2,850

810

550

260

Other leukemiac

5,800

3,200

2,600

6,780

3,870

2,910

Other & unspecified primary sitesc

31,430

16,370

15,060

44,680

24,780

19,900

  1. Rounded to the nearest 10; estimated new cases exclude basal cell and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ carcinoma except urinary bladder.

  2. About 62,570 carcinoma in situ of the female breast and 63,770 melanoma in situ will be newly diagnosed in 2014.

  3. b

    Estimated deaths for colon and rectum cancers are combined.

  4. c

    More deaths than cases may reflect lack of specificity in recording underlying cause of death on death certificates and/or an undercount in the case estimate.

The estimated numbers of new cancer cases by state for selected cancer sites are available - click here.

>> More Cancer Statistics at Cancer Institute
 

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