Senior Citizens Pick 'Aviator' and 'Million Dollar Baby' for Top Pics in Oscars

Feb. 23, 2005 - Senior Citizens 59 and older pick 'The Aviator' as the winner of the Oscar for Best Picture, while voters of all ages pick 'Ray.' The seniors pick 'Million Dollar Baby' for number two, while the rest of America says it should be 'Aviator.' The senior pick may be influenced by fellow senior Clint Eastwood's starring and directing role in 'Million Dollar Baby.'

The seniors choose Eastwood for best actor, while the rest of America favors Jamie Foxx for his role in 'Ray.'

According to the latest Harris Poll, 23 percent of all U.S. adults say best picture should go to "Ray" on February 27, and 21 percent say it should go to "The Aviator." Other films receiving less support are "Million Dollar Baby" (14%), "Finding Neverland" (7%) and "Sideways" with five percent thinking it should get the honor.

It is not too surprising that in the polling, seniors were the most likely not to have an opinion. On the other hand, there is a definite "older American" slant to the Oscar race - not only Eastwood, but two stories about American legends, Ray Charles and Howard Hughes.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,012 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive(R) between February 8 and 13, 2005.

The race for best actor is a bit more clear - nearly one-third (31%) of adults say that Jamie Foxx should win the award for his performance in "Ray." Clint Eastwood in "Million Dollar Baby" comes in second with 19 percent, and 12 percent believe it should be Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Aviator."

When looking at the best actress nominees, one-third (33%) believe the Oscar should go to Hilary Swank for her performance in "Million Dollar Baby," however one in five (20%) adults are not sure who should win.

Other results from The Harris Poll are:

* Men believe the best picture Oscar should go to "The Aviator" (26%) while women believe it should go to "Ray" (23%).

* In the best actress race, there are some generational differences in who should win the Oscar. Echo boomers (aged 18-27) are much more likely to believe Kate Winslet should win for her performance in "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" (33%) while Gen X'ers (28-39) and Baby Boomers (aged 40-58) are more likely to think Hilary Swank should win (37% and 38%, respectively) for her performance in "Million Dollar Baby." Nearly a third (31%) of matures (aged 59 and over) believe Hilary Swank should win, but another 31 percent are not sure who should take home the Oscar for best actress.

* Both African Americans and Hispanics are more likely to think "Ray" should win best picture (64% and 33%, respectively), while Whites believe "The Aviator" should win the Oscar (24%). African Americans are also much more likely to believe that Jamie Foxx should win for best actor (67%) than either Whites (24%) or Hispanics (36%). In the best actress category, while Whites (32%), African Americans (39%) and Hispanics (30%) pick Hillary Swank to win, for Hispanics, Catalina Sandino Moreno runs a close second for her performance in "Maria Full of Grace" (28%).

* Republicans, Democrats and Independents are not only of differing minds on political candidates and issues, but also with regard to the Oscars.

Republicans are more likely to believe "The Aviator" (25%) should win best picture, and Clint Eastwood (22%) is not far behind frontrunner Jamie Foxx (25%). Democrats, on the other hand, are more likely to choose "Ray" (29%) for best picture and Jamie Foxx (35%) by more than 16 percentage points over Clint Eastwood (19%) for best actor.

* When looking at the frequency with which people go to the movies, among those who have seen five or more movies in the past three months, one-third (34%) think "Ray" should win best picture. Among those who have not been to the movies in the past three months, 21 percent believe "The Aviator" should get top honors.

TABLE 1
BEST PICTURE OSCAR
"Which movie should win the Oscar for Best Picture?"
Base: All adults

Total Gender Race
M F Whites African Hispanics
Americans (n=62)**
(n=61)**
% % % % % %
Ray 23 24 23 16 64 33
The Aviator 21 26 17 24 13 10
Million Dollar Baby 14 14 14 15 5 23
Finding Neverland 7 4 9 7 1 10
Sideways 5 5 5 5 2 8
None of these 10 10 11 12 4 9
Not Sure 18 15 20 21 11 7
Decline to Answer 1 2 * 1 -- --

Generation
Echo Boomers Gen X Baby Boomers Matures
(age 18-27) (age 28-39) (age 40-58) (age 59+)
% % % %
Ray 40 24 22 10
The Aviator 18 16 24 25
Million Dollar Baby 12 13 16 15
Finding Neverland 13 8 6 4
Sideways 6 6 6 3
None of these 6 12 11 13
Not Sure 5 21 16 29
Decline to Answer -- 1 1 1


Party ID Movie Attendance in
Past 3 Months
Republican Democrat Independent 0 1-4 5 or more
Times Times Times
% % % % % %
Ray 22 29 17 15 30 34
The Aviator 25 16 21 21 22 22
Million Dollar Baby 8 17 21 14 11 23
Finding Neverland 6 7 9 7 7 9
Sideways 3 8 5 4 7 6
None of these 16 9 6 13 9 3
Not Sure 19 14 21 25 14 3
Decline to Answer 2 1 -- 1 1 --

* 0.5 percent or less.
** These results should be used directionally because of the very low
sample size.


TABLE 2
BEST ACTOR OSCAR
"Who should win the Oscar for Best Actor?"
Base: All adults

Total Gender Race
M F Whites African Hispanics
Americans (n=62)**
(n=61)**
% % % % % %
Jamie Foxx for Ray 31 35 27 24 67 36
Clint Eastwood